Project summary

One-liner: Provide a tool that shows random Manifold markets and asks the user for a prediction. Focus on usability.

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Concept: The user is provided a Manifold market. They make their prediction. The market probability is shown. Then the user is allowed to bet on the market.

For reference, a minimum viable product may be found here: https://oddball-pi.vercel.app/newest. (This has not been created by me.)

This project takes the concept and improves on the execution.

What are this project's goals and how will you achieve them?

The aim is to provide a complete tool, working as standalone or integrated to Manifold.

A list indicating features a complete version would have:

• You see the market title+description

• Good UI

• Keeping track of your numeric predictions and how good they've been

• Customizable display of meta-data and comments

• Customizable time limits for making these predictions + other gamifying (e.g. "how many predictions you've done?")

• Customize markets shown to you, e.g. by tags

• (In case of large userbase: collecting feedback on "do you want to see more/less of this type of markets" + recommendation algorithm)

How will this funding be used?

Compensation for my time and work. There may be small expenses from having a website up.

Who is on your team and what's your track record on similar projects?

The team currently consists of me only. (I'm open to others joining and contributing.)

I have decent programming skills accumulated over a few years. However, I have not worked on similar software projects before.

What are the most likely causes and outcomes if this project fails? (premortem)

• I lack the technical expertise to deliver the product

• I lack the time/energy/motivation, failing to deliver the product

• There is a lack of users, so that it makes little sense to maintain and improve the product -> there is a lack of users -> the product is not maintained or improved -> ...

I note that while I have plenty of free time during December, I will be busier starting from January.

What other funding are you or your project getting?

None.