Why I think strong general AI is coming soon

(median ~2030)

Disagreement with bio anchors that lead to shorter timelines

‘Dissolving’ AI Risk

Parameter Uncertainty in AI Future Forecasting

AI X-Risk: Integrating on the Shoulders of Giants

Ignoring the interrelated structure of propositions when predicting complex uncertainties can lead to substantial errors and inefficiency in identifying critical uncertainties.

Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topics

Create Subsidized Prediction Markets On Polymarket.com

Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity markets

Add additional social incentives to bet YES to publicly signal value/support/belief and NO to signal the opposite.

Comparing forecasting platform accuracy

Collaborative Resolution of Political Controversies

Crystal Ballin' Podcast

New fortnightly podcast on all things prediction markets

OPTIC

Intercollegiate Forecasting Tournament

Make large-scale analysis of Python code several orders of magnitude quicker

Provide Rationality / EA Education at University of Maryland

Impact Assessment of Social Programs

Verifying and Quantifying the Outcomes of Nonprofits

Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheets

An Add-on for easy access to Manifold´s Prediction Markets

Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting

Working towards GAAP For Impact Markets

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Risk

Evaluating whether forecasts of earthquake risk lead people to take steps to prepare

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards

Promoting forecasts in order to help mitigate weather risks, then evaluating the effect of this information.

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majors

Promoting forecasts in order to help college choose their field of study, then evaluating the effect of this information.

Telegram bot for Manifold Markets

Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts

I will pay 30 superforecasters to make forecasts of long-run treatment effects from randomised control trials

A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold

Instead of saying "I want to bet $X on this market" you will say "I think the true probability is Y%", and it will tell you how much to bet

Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risks

Forecasting GCRs is hard. How can we do it better, and how much better is that?

Interpretable Forecasting with Transformers

Make accurate, well-calibrated, and honest predictions with large language models.

Analyze this Mechanism

This mechanism seems promising for public goods funding and wealth equalizing dynamics, hire mathematician to check

Sow the Seeds of Rationality

HPMOR for promising Junior High and High Schoolers

Deriving Benefit-Cost Ratio of Outcomes

Calculating the benefit of outcomes on GiveWell and Impact Genome Registry

CO2 in my room

There's CO2 in my room

GradeFact

Credit scores for predictions made by news, media, public figures to keep them accountable

Remote Indigenous Literacy/Numeracy Courses

Nungalinya College (Darwin) offers literacy and numeracy courses to over 180 remote Indigenous students each year

Eek!

Solving AI alignment through cross-species communication

The Annotated Willard

A Primer on Self-Justifying Axiom Systems

Base Rate Times

Like The Economist meets Metaculus

Haruspex [Forecasting Competition Platform]

Mobile platform for some forecasting games

Multiplayer RootClaim

Allowing prediction market participants to construct, share & clone prediction models

Predicting Replication in Academic Economics

Replicate one year of the AER, test robustness, and see if it's predictable.

Fund the localisation of LibreOffice into Pidgin/Bislama/Tok Pisin

Bringing open source software and digital ownership and identity to Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and the Solomons.

AI Safety Policy Communication for Legislators (Blog)

A blog (which already has top policy decision makers in No.10 subscribed) to communicate non-technically ideas about AI safety (mostly).

Implement a Small-Group Futarchy App

Decision markets for ad hoc group decision-making

Hire biosensor technicians to collect jhana data

Staff an already-scheduled retreat sufficiently to map the neural correlates of life-changing meditative states

Deploy an already built prediction website

For a smaller language - Bulgarian

Make forecasting fun again

Devise and execute fun/visible/viral forecasting engagement projects

Can communication between contributors improve aggregate forecasting accuracy?

Previous research says no, but that research is incomplete.

DiPalConnect app

Digital Pal Connection App

Forecasting Knowledge to Brazil [and other Portuguese-speaking countries]

Organizing, translating and writing what we know [and forecast] about forecasting, in order to lower the entry barrier to a country of significant influence in the Global South and a long track of international cooperation