OP AI Worldviews Contest
Ignoring the interrelated structure of propositions when predicting complex uncertainties can lead to substantial errors and inefficiency in identifying critical uncertainties.
Parameter Uncertainty in AI Future Forecasting
(median ~2030)
ACX Mini-Grants
New fortnightly podcast on all things prediction markets
An Add-on for easy access to Manifold´s Prediction Markets
I will pay 30 superforecasters to make forecasts of long-run treatment effects from randomised control trials
Make accurate, well-calibrated, and honest predictions with large language models.
Instead of saying "I want to bet $X on this market" you will say "I think the true probability is Y%", and it will tell you how much to bet
Forecasting GCRs is hard. How can we do it better, and how much better is that?
Working towards GAAP For Impact Markets
Verifying and Quantifying the Outcomes of Nonprofits
Promoting forecasts in order to help college choose their field of study, then evaluating the effect of this information.
Promoting forecasts in order to help mitigate weather risks, then evaluating the effect of this information.
Evaluating whether forecasts of earthquake risk lead people to take steps to prepare
Intercollegiate Forecasting Tournament
Create Subsidized Prediction Markets On Polymarket.com
Add additional social incentives to bet YES to publicly signal value/support/belief and NO to signal the opposite.
Decision markets for ad hoc group decision-making
For a smaller language - Bulgarian
Like The Economist meets Metaculus
Organizing, translating and writing what we know [and forecast] about forecasting, in order to lower the entry barrier to a country of significant influence in the Global South and a long track of international cooperation
Previous research says no, but that research is incomplete.
Devise and execute fun/visible/viral forecasting engagement projects
Credit scores for predictions made by news, media, public figures to keep them accountable
Replicate one year of the AER, test robustness, and see if it's predictable.
Allowing prediction market participants to construct, share & clone prediction models
Mobile platform for some forecasting games
Calculating the benefit of outcomes on GiveWell and Impact Genome Registry
Independent
There's CO2 in my room
Digital Pal Connection App
Staff an already-scheduled retreat sufficiently to map the neural correlates of life-changing meditative states
A blog (which already has top policy decision makers in No.10 subscribed) to communicate non-technically ideas about AI safety (mostly).
Bringing open source software and digital ownership and identity to Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and the Solomons.
A Primer on Self-Justifying Axiom Systems
Solving AI alignment through cross-species communication
Nungalinya College (Darwin) offers literacy and numeracy courses to over 180 remote Indigenous students each year
HPMOR for promising Junior High and High Schoolers
This mechanism seems promising for public goods funding and wealth equalizing dynamics, hire mathematician to check