First blog post is out: https://outsidetheasylum.blog/prediction-markets-are-not-polls/
Proud holder of first place on the inverse Manifold profit leaderboard.https://outsidetheasylum.blog/
$0 in pending offers
9 days ago
I've created a market on what features will result in this project receiving a Community Fund payout.
@evand I'm not really interested in the "moderate success" goal; coming up with plans is easy, it's putting them into practice that's the challenge. Conditional on "extreme success" (using my judgement on what level of improvement is enough to count) I'd be happy to fund the full $750.
The reason I expect this to fail is because your proposal doesn't include anything to address the core issue of discounting rates. Adding subsidies only decreases the relative temporal transaction costs of betting, asymptotically towards 0. But even with no transaction costs whatsoever it's still irrational to bet in a market if a higher rate of return can be found elsewhere, which is almost always true for a market at <3% that resolves in more than a month.
Arbitrage bots and derivative markets are just further epicycles that don't address the core issue either. A real solution will need to fundamentally change the market structure such that the rate of return is competitive. The two best suggestions I've seen thus far are some sort of log payout market structure developed by Robin Hanson, and an increased loan rate. (The latter runs into massive bankruptcy risk.)