Evan Daniel


$0total balance
$0charity balance
$0cash balance

$0 in pending offers

Proposal bids


Extreme Probabilities Project

pending sufficient pledged funds



Evan Daniel

11 days ago

@Isaac-King That seems entirely fair! Though, to be clear, the "moderate success" case is not just coming up with a plan; it also includes supporting that plan with data. Hopefully the data does in fact make things more interesting! "I'll just write up my plan" is a thing I could do, right now, at a reasonable cost of a few more hours of work, and justifies far less than $5k.

If we actually hit the "extreme success" case, this is worth far more than $5k. This is a problem that has existed for decades without serious answers. AFAICT, the best suggestion so far is something like "bet in denomination of stock index funds" or "joint markets of the thing of interest x stock prices", which are both good and correct ideas but not actually all that exciting and only address a piece of the problem.

Per your market, I don't actually expect I'll fix the problem in the 99%+ range. I'd be very happy with a substantial improvement in the 95%-98.5% range, especially if combined with evidence that the same plan could work at more extreme probabilities, at least in a subset of interesting cases.


Evan Daniel

13 days ago

@Isaac-King I would be interested in hearing serious offers for shares conditional on "moderate success" or better, as defined above. I'm very uncertain about the "extreme success" outcome. At the very least, it isn't going to be achieved without far more serious dev support from Manifold than I have any reason to count on.