Crystal Ballin' Podcast

New fortnightly podcast on all things prediction markets

A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold

Instead of saying "I want to bet $X on this market" you will say "I think the true probability is Y%", and it will tell you how much to bet

OPTIC

Intercollegiate Forecasting Tournament

Telegram bot for Manifold Markets

Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts

I will pay 30 superforecasters to make forecasts of long-run treatment effects from randomised control trials

Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheets

An Add-on for easy access to Manifold´s Prediction Markets

Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topics

Create Subsidized Prediction Markets On Polymarket.com

Impact Assessment of Social Programs

Verifying and Quantifying the Outcomes of Nonprofits

Interpretable Forecasting with Transformers

Make accurate, well-calibrated, and honest predictions with large language models.

Provide Rationality / EA Education at University of Maryland

Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting

Working towards GAAP For Impact Markets

Comparing forecasting platform accuracy

Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity markets

Add additional social incentives to bet YES to publicly signal value/support/belief and NO to signal the opposite.

Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risks

Forecasting GCRs is hard. How can we do it better, and how much better is that?

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majors

Promoting forecasts in order to help college choose their field of study, then evaluating the effect of this information.

Collaborative Resolution of Political Controversies

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards

Promoting forecasts in order to help mitigate weather risks, then evaluating the effect of this information.

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Risk

Evaluating whether forecasts of earthquake risk lead people to take steps to prepare

Base Rate Times

Like The Economist meets Metaculus

Implement a Small-Group Futarchy App

Decision markets for ad hoc group decision-making