Lost a personal bet with Rai Sur about the US elections, so this is a donation from him :)

I read your book review! While I'm not a diehard convert yet, these ideas definitely seem worth exploring.

Just to be clear, do you plan to actually replicate the studies, or just re-analyze their data?

"According to the UN, up to 1 billion people, nearly one in six of the world’s population suffer from neurological disorders, from Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s diseases to strokes, multiple sclerosis, and infections."

I'm sorry to nitpick, but 1) no, they don't, you'd have to really torture the definition of "neurological disorders" to reach 1 billion, 2) that's not 1/6th of the world population

@Austin

Yeah, building the community is definitely harder than building the engineering side. It is hugely impressive that you managed to bootstrap Manifold to have so much activity in so little time.

I agree, it IS a niche within a niche. But -- isn't it sort of the point to get to such a depth? My ideal version of the world includes using prediction markets for more than just US elections and crypto prices.

I want a decent number of people predicting whether a certain policy will increase birth rate, or whether a nuclear power station project will be built in time and within the budget. Those are indeed very niche, nerdy things, but also things on which it is important to get things right. So I am trying.

But also, even the case of failure is not in vain. If it turns out that it is impossible (or very hard) to get a community of 100-200 people in Bulgaria to be regular users, that is also a data point. The next guy will know that prediction markets for small countries are very tricky/hard. We will have some practical evidence against any futarchy ZEDE/charter city ideas.

>feedback from the first set of users

The feedback was generally polite interest - I didn't manage to get the ball rolling to get anything more.

>What do you plan on doing differently this time around to try and get more usage?

Specifically:

• focus on community building, rather than on features

• have leaderboard prizes - which is not trivial, even for small amounts, in poor countries

• have a marketing budget

• consult actual marketing/SEO experts

• do things that don't scale that well - press releases, cajoling university students, facebook posts, get a core of users to participate by badgering them IRL, send personal invitations to the political analyst class, give out nice certificates that people can show off and put on linkedin, hire an intern or two, hold an essay contest

• apply for more sources of financing

@Austin

Yeah, building the community is definitely harder than building the engineering side. It is hugely impressive that you managed to bootstrap Manifold to have so much activity in so little time.

I agree, it IS a niche within a niche. But -- isn't it sort of the point to get to such a depth? My ideal version of the world includes using prediction markets for more than just US elections and crypto prices.

I want a decent number of people predicting whether a certain policy will increase birth rate, or whether a nuclear power station project will be built in time and within the budget. Those are indeed very niche, nerdy things, but also things on which it is important to get things right. So I am trying.

But also, even the case of failure is not in vain. If it turns out that it is impossible (or very hard) to get a community of 100-200 people in Bulgaria to be regular users, that is also a data point. The next guy will know that prediction markets for small countries are very tricky/hard. We will have some practical evidence against any futarchy ZEDE/charter city ideas.

>feedback from the first set of users

The feedback was generally polite interest - I didn't manage to get the ball rolling to get anything more.

>What do you plan on doing differently this time around to try and get more usage?

Specifically:

• focus on community building, rather than on features

• have leaderboard prizes - which is not trivial, even for small amounts, in poor countries

• have a marketing budget

• consult actual marketing/SEO experts

• do things that don't scale that well - press releases, cajoling university students, facebook posts, get a core of users to participate by badgering them IRL, send personal invitations to the political analyst class, give out nice certificates that people can show off and put on linkedin, hire an intern or two, hold an essay contest

• apply for more sources of financing

@Ernest

>Where does the news come from?

The links are submitted by users, like reddit/hackernews. The markets are created and added by the team operating the site.

>What advantages does it have that aren't met by MM?

It's hard for me to really answer the question. What advantages did reddit have that weren't met by Facebook? None, it was just different.

And this site operates completely differently from manifold.

• Different processing of information

• Different topics

• The structure encourages users to participate in every forecast.

@Ernest

>Where does the news come from?

The links are submitted by users, like reddit/hackernews. The markets are created and added by the team operating the site.

>What advantages does it have that aren't met by MM?

It's hard for me to really answer the question. What advantages did reddit have that weren't met by Facebook? None, it was just different.

And this site operates completely differently from manifold.

• Different processing of information

• Different topics

• The structure encourages users to participate in every forecast.