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Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting

$989raised
$600valuation
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Pitch deck for my projects found here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yjCCO-2-ClpKiLTNyijbf0XdHbMqJfCq/view?usp=sharing

Project description

This project is a research initiative to develop a set of principles and guidelines that future projects can use when reporting results - imagine it as GAAP for impact markets. 

Just like standards of disclosure have improved trust and reach for financial markets, I intend to help make future impact markets more successful by making it easier for future recipients to inform their investors on the impact of their projects. The tools developed here should also help future investors make decisions about which projects to fund.

The tools developed in this project will be trialled for reporting results from the "Forecast Dissemination Mini-Markets", which are deliberately designed to be similar in order to aid comparison between them.

What is your track record on similar projects?

I’m a professional forecaster working for Amazon (I also won the ACX 2022 forecasting contest). I’ve previously done work in survey research and causal inference, with a focus on evaluating the effectiveness of educational interventions.

I used to work in litigation, where I conducted research projects for expert testimony in labor and accounting-related lawsuits. This gave me familiarity with accounting principles and a great deal of experience reading financial reports.

My recent professional focus has been on automating the use of forecasts in business decisionmaking, and this project is a part of my personal interest in “aligning” institutions and market outcomes with human values.

How will you spend your funding?

Funding received for this project will go towards supporting the development of standards for reporting that future impact markets might adopt. I will publish the results of this work by September, on Manifold if possible, and otherwise on my own website. The amount of time spent will vary based on funding, but I will commit at least one hour of dedicated work to this project for each $50 of funding received. At project completion in September, I will also publish a breakdown of my research process, with the time spent on each component.

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RyanKupyn avatar

Ryan Kupyn

over 1 year ago

Project Update:

My report on this project

Results of my research

Detailed Questions
1. How much money have you spent so far? Have you gotten more funding from other sources? Do you need more funding?

I spent about 30 hours working on this project, conducting research and testing my approaches to impact market reporting with my other projects as test cases. This project did not directly use the funds allocated from investors, so no other funding was used or necessary.

2. How is the project going? (a few paragraphs)

The project went well and is now complete! You can see my results and thoughts in detail at the links above, but I've adopted them here as well:

My work on this project is intended to speed the growth of future impact markets by developing a standardized system for grantees to report on their impact, making retro funding decisions easier and encouraging future market participation. 

In order to achieve this, I conducted research on different markets, their evolution, and how their associated technologies and norms that affected their growth. Specifically, I looked at:
1. The growth of bond trading during the 70s and 80s
2. How markets for carbon offsets operate, and how their reporting standards are gamed by some particpants
3. How Hawala brokers operate in parallel to the established financial system.

From this research, I developed a standardized template for reporting impact market results, which I then used to report results from my related forecast dissemination projects. I've published an essay with my findings here: http://ryankupyn.com/tools-for-impact-market-reporting/

This essay also includes the standardized template for other impact market participants to use, as well as examples of this template used in practice.

I think that the valuation of this project is largely dependent on two questions:
1. Whether you think my approach to reporting is easier for retro funders to work with than the current status quo.
2. Whether you think this approach will be adopted for impact markets, and if so, whether this adoption with encourage future impact market growth.

If this work is both an improvement and likely to make future impact markets more successful, I think the value would be high! Otherwise, I would assign a lower value.

The "impact" of this project in a societal sense is also dependent on how much better impact markets might perform than a the current prospective funding approach to philanthropy. If markets are much more effective, even a small increase to their likelihood and rate of adoption will have large societal benefits.

3. How well has your project gone compared to where you expected it to be at this point? (Score from 1-10, 10 = Better than expected)

I would rate this project at around a 8-out-of-10. I think there's a lot more work that could be done to develop useful infrastructure for future impact markets, but I think this project has already led to some useful tools for future impact markets to use. I found them to be very helpful when reporting on my other projects, and I hope that the information I present in them is useful for retro funders in making their decisions.

4. Are there any remaining ways you need help, besides more funding?

Not at the moment - I consider this project to be complete for now.

5. Any other thoughts or feedback?

Not on this project specifically, but I also published my thoughts on challenges impact markets face and how to adapt to them at the link above.

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RyanKupyn avatar

Ryan Kupyn

about 2 years ago

Thanks Austin! Here are my answers to both of your questions (I'm going to try to add the pitch deck to the project descriptions as well):

How did you settle on these three areas (college students, earthquakes, and hurricane forecasts?)

I’m specifically selecting areas where I think there are lots of people making decisions that would benefit from having a forecast available. This particular set of areas is selected to maximize the contrast in impact durations (better hurricane information helps outcomes immediately, while most of the impact of choosing a college major happens years in the future).

For a project with $500 to spend on ads, how many people would you expect to reach?

After pricing out a few options, I expect to get around 5,000 impressions per $100 spent (this isn’t an exact number and will depend on the exact demographic targeted among other factors). I’m planning to use a portion of the money to do a second round of ads for a survey to estimate impact, so a good estimate would be around 20k impressions for $500.

Austin avatar

Austin Chen

about 2 years ago

Hi Ryan, I really love the innovative way you've chosen to use Manifund (as a bidding mechanism between three different projects to allocate ad spend!) And naturally, we're super interested in guidelines to help inform future impact market rounds.

A couple of questions for you:

  • How did you settle on these three areas (college students, earthquakes, and hurricane forecasts?)

  • For a project with $500 to spend on ads, how many people would you expect to reach?

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RyanKupyn avatar

Ryan Kupyn

about 2 years ago

Hi folks!

I'm holding a 30-minute pitch call for my projects this Thursday at 5:00 pm Pacific time. This call will include more information on the work I plan to do and why I think it's important, as well as an opportunity for direct Q&A.

You can send any questions you'd like me to address to impact@ryankupyn.com (or ask them here of course).

Meeting link:

https://meet.google.com/rpv-yymq-pvj