Project summary

GiveWell’s mission is to find the charities that deliver the greatest impact per dollar spent to help donors decide where to give. To support this, they publish forecasts on expected grant outcomes. Now, Metaculus and GiveWell invite you to forecast and share your reasoning to help GiveWell help others in a tournament with cash prizes for the winners.

Metaculus will share high-quality comments with GiveWell after the submission deadline. Prizes will be awarded in January 2025.

How will this funding be used?

The current prize pool is as follows:

• The max award for a single participating commenter is $1,000

• Ten prizes will be distributed as follows: 

  • The 1st place comment wins $300

  • 2nd & third place comments each win $275

  • The 4th through 10th place comments each receive $200

Donating to this Manifund page will increase the prize pool, in a method decided by the Metaculus team.

Note: Employees of GiveWell, their immediate family members, and those living in the same household are not eligible for prizes.

Who is on your team and what's your track record on similar projects?

The Metaculus team is running this forecasting tournament in collaboration with Givewell. Metaculus has run a large number of tournaments in the past — see here for more examples and more details.

Note: this page was quickly set up by @saulmunn, and doesn't necessarily faithfully represent the views of Metaculus.