Pitch deck for my projects found here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yjCCO-2-ClpKiLTNyijbf0XdHbMqJfCq/view?usp=sharing

Project description

I’ve been working in forecasting for a few years now, and I’ve seen lots of great forecasts (and forecasters) that aren’t able to reach the people who would benefit most from them. I’m launching this project to evaluate the impact of publicly disseminating relevant forecasts through targeted ads, while also supporting the development of standards for impact reporting that can be used for future markets.

This project is one component of three-project collection that is designed to leverage impact markets in order to explicitly prioritize between three different sets of forecasts to promote - the more funding a given project receives, the more reach ads connected with that project will have.

Investments in this specific project will go towards promoting forecasts that help people in the path of an incoming hurricane get good information their risk and take actions to mitigate it, and evaluate the effectiveness of that campaign.

Once this project is complete, the results and estimated impact will be published using the standardized format developed in “Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting”.

What is your track record on similar projects?

I’m a professional forecaster working for Amazon (I also won the ACX 2022 forecasting contest). I’ve previously done work in survey research and causal inference, with a focus on evaluating the effectiveness of educational interventions.

I previously worked in litigation, where I conducted similar research projects for expert testimony in labor and accounting-related lawsuits.

My recent professional focus has been on automating the use of forecasts in business decisionmaking, and this project is a part of my personal interest in “aligning” institutions and market outcomes with human values.

How will you spend your funding?

When the first hurricane predicted to make landfall in the US in 2023 is identified, I’ll be using the funds received in this project to target online ads towards individuals living in areas at risk of flooding, directing them towards government forecasts of hurricane risk in their area and resources to help them get to safety. I will collect metrics on the performance of these ads and follow up with a survey designed to evaluate their effectiveness.

I’m personally putting $250 towards each of these mini-markets ($750 total) to provide a baseline ad purchase. Additional funding will be used to broaden the target audience for ads, which I expect will increase impact in a roughly linear way.

If no hurricane predicted to hit the US has developed by July 15, I will retarget the funds raised here towards a different set of weather-related risks in order to collect and analyze useful data by the project end date.