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Scott Alexander

@ScottAlexander

accredited investor

astralcodexten.substack.com
$99,015.19total balance
$96,648charity balance
$0cash balance

$2,367 in pending offers

Investments

OPTICbought $9.03K @ $9.2K valuation
Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topicsbought $42 @ $600 valuation
Provide Rationality / EA Education at University of Marylandbought $7.5K @ $7.5K valuation
Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risksbought $450 @ $450 valuation
Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheetsbought $160 @ $250 valuation
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsbought $1.55K @ $2K valuation
Telegram bot for Manifold Marketsbought $254 @ $300 valuation
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Riskbought $95 @ $125 valuation
Comparing forecasting platform accuracybought $674 @ $800 valuation
Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity marketsbought $300 @ $300 valuation
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingbought $514 @ $600 valuation
Interpretable Forecasting with Transformersbought $63 @ $250 valuation
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsbought $200 @ $200 valuation
Impact Assessment of Social Programsbought $500 @ $1K valuation
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldbought $6.89K @ $7K valuation
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majorsbought $250 @ $250 valuation
Crystal Ballin' Podcastbought $289 @ $300 valuation

Transactions

ForDateTypeAmount
Manifund Bankabout 1 year agodeposit+9960
Scott Alexanderabout 1 year agocash to charity transfer4389
Manifund Bankabout 1 year agodeposit+86688
OPTICover 1 year agouser to user trade2022
Telegram bot for Manifold Marketsover 1 year agouser to user trade75
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldalmost 2 years agouser to user trade732
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldalmost 2 years agouser to user trade1751
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldalmost 2 years agouser to user trade0
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade100
Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risksalmost 2 years agouser to user trade225
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldalmost 2 years agouser to user trade105
Telegram bot for Manifold Marketsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade20
Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheetsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade151
Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity marketsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade219
Crystal Ballin' Podcastalmost 2 years agouser to user trade0
Crystal Ballin' Podcastalmost 2 years agouser to user trade19
Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topicsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade36
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldalmost 2 years agouser to user trade2101
Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity marketsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade75
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade1
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldalmost 2 years agouser to user trade2101
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade1360
Crystal Ballin' Podcastalmost 2 years agouser to user trade270
OPTICalmost 2 years agouser to user trade6083
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Riskalmost 2 years agouser to user trade63
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majorsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade125
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade10
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade5
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade5
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade228
Comparing forecasting platform accuracyalmost 2 years agouser to user trade267
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade240
Interpretable Forecasting with Transformersalmost 2 years agouser to user trade63
OPTICalmost 2 years agouser to user trade920
Impact Assessment of Social Programsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade500
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingalmost 2 years agouser to user trade34
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majorsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade63
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldalmost 2 years agouser to user trade104
Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topicsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade6
Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity marketsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade6
Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheetsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade9
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade1
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade188
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majorsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade63
Comparing forecasting platform accuracyalmost 2 years agouser to user trade1
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Riskalmost 2 years agouser to user trade33
Comparing forecasting platform accuracyalmost 2 years agouser to user trade406
Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risksalmost 2 years agouser to user trade225
Telegram bot for Manifold Marketsalmost 2 years agouser to user trade159
Provide Rationality / EA Education at University of Marylandalmost 2 years agouser to user trade7500
Manifund Bankalmost 2 years agodeposit+31125