Manifund foxManifund
Home
Login
About
People
Categories
Newsletter
HomeAboutPeopleCategoriesLoginCreate
-2

Weather futures market for forecasting, insurance, and climate engineering.

ACX Grants 2024
homogenitus avatar

homogenitus

Not fundedImpact certificate
$0raised
$10,000valuation

Longer description of your proposed project

The trusted third party to settle weather futures.

Three market participants: forecast, desire, and engineer.

Forecasters are data scientists, market makers, etc. Their forecasts model the value of desirer's contracts.

Desirers are agriculture, tourism, insurance, sea-level communities, etc. They create contracts for their desired weather, temperature, rain, wind speeds, time frame, etc.

Engineers modify the climate to profit between what is forecast, what is desired, and what can be altered using aerosols, space shades, etc.

This could be a non-profit, where surpluses are rolled into incentivizing the market's robustness: diverse engineering efforts, market making, and reaching desirers.

Describe why you think you're qualified to work on this

2010 B.S. Computer Engineering. Embedded software on medical devices (mobile vital signs, wearable cardioverter, a patent on dysrhythmia classification) and consumer electronics (Fitbit). Past 5 years in autonomous vehicles, safety critical designs and implementation, controls, and systems software. Piecewise participation in companies from Series-A 10-headcount to public company 1000-headcount.

Physics minor focused on solid state systems, but the mindset carries through. This is a series of experiments, mutation and selection, and we need a market to unite the knowledge of forecasters, with the needs of desirers, and effects of engineers.

Other ways I can learn about you

I keep my internet exposure to a minimum. This project won't be popular. I'm happy to meet in person in the Bay Area.

How much money do you need?

I'm the prime breadwinner with two pre-school babies, but we are improving our efficiency. $1 - $10K gets "this is a good idea, please be motivated to build anything". $50K gets a year of night work, average 1hr/day, likely enough to start a simple market and blog. $100K gets parttime effort, I'll step back at work. $250K gets full time building and growth.

Links to any supporting documents or information

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2012.0086

Estimate your probability of succeeding if you get the amount of money you asked for

50% :)

Comments2Similar3
🐶

Evan Daniel

$3K

Extreme Probabilities Project

Explore a market structure that attempts to produce good probability estimates on highly-confident markets.

Manifold iconManifold Community FundForecasting
5
11
$0 raised
RyanKupyn avatar

Ryan Kupyn

$200

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards

Promoting forecasts in order to help mitigate weather risks, then evaluating the effect of this information.

ACX mini-grantsForecasting
1
2
$350 raised
astrosnat avatar

Osnat Katz

Science prediction markets for replicability

Create a real-money prediction market platform to help solve the replication crisis

ACX Grants 2024
2
14
$0 raised