@Jason I see! Thank you for explaining more fully what you were asking about.
Even at this small scale, I'm committed to using this money to deliver the program to 1 person for each $500 invested, even down to the minimum funding level of $1K (which would cover two people). So $7.5K will let 15 people start microbusinesses (with all the accompanying positive impacts for each of those people/families, as I describe above.) It's possible that things will become even more cost effective over time -- but even at this scale, I can and will deliver it for $500/person (including covering $200 of their startup costs, effectively a cash transfer.) So I don't think the cost effectiveness calculation needs to include a promise of future efficiency.
Another important piece of the way I look at cost effectiveness is that once these new business owners are profitable (within 6 months), they'll pay for others to go through the program. So the $7.5K could, if I'm successful, fund 15 people immediately and then (hopefully) fund many more people than that with that repayment model.
The way I explain that above is -- each dollar isn’t “burned” but rather funds an ongoing (and hopefully even >1x) multiplier of the funds. And it’s reasonable to expect a 50-100x revenue yield for the migrant in just 12 months (for example, if the program costs $500 and he has revenues of $25K-$50K in his first year. )
It almost sounds too good to be true -- a $500 investment can 2x-5x a person's income within 30 days and give them a business they can grow over time -- and then that person will turn around and fund that same income lift for the next person in line. But these are the impacts I'm seeing (and why I'm devoting these years of my work life to the project, despite the opportunity costs.)
Thanks again for talking it over. I'm still working on the clearest ways to explain/conceptualize all of this and your questions help me refine that!