Trading assistant bot (Remind Me)

Manifold Community Fund Forecasting

cc6

CompleteImpact certificate

$191raised

$100valuation

Project summary

A bot that functions as a trading assistant, giving you notification of markets' new highs and lows, and letting you know when you need to check on your investment. I have already created it, but I think that I could add a lot more features and make it a lot better.

This is also useful for getting notifications of important events, since the markets discussing them will probably have big swings.

What are this project's goals and how will you achieve them?

Fix all bugs, and deploy on a server to have 99%+ uptime
Allow people to add an API key to automate trading
Support discord notifications (so the bot could send you a message on discord if the market swings)
More! Let me know if you have suggestions. I think that there's more potential here.

How will this funding be used?

The funding will pay for the hosting of the bot and any other services necessary. Also, I spent quite a bit of time on it, so some of it is labor (considering the time I spent on it, I'm probably paying myself the federal minimum wage)

Who is on your team and what's your track record on similar projects?

I'm the only person on the team. I've already made a lot of progress on the bot (prior to submitting it here), so you can be assured that I'm not just going to say I want to do something but never do it. I don't want to dox myself, but I also interned at a small startup in the Bay Area and I successfully completed a project there.

What are the most likely causes and outcomes if this project fails? (premortem)

I'm a high school junior so most likely lack of time is the most likely thing to cause this project to fail. Worst case is that I could pick it up again over the summer.

What other funding are you or your project getting?

None

Updates:

11/24: Put bot on a server

12/5: I'm going to be on vacation for the majority of December, so I won't be getting too much development done. I'll work as much as I can in the beginning/end of December because I'll be on break but I won't be on vacation.

12/12: The bot is currently offline because the API changed a few days ago and I am unable to fix the code because my parents didn't let me bring a laptop on vacation (we are traveling light). However, things will be able to work again when I get back and can modify my POST requests.

I need to figure out a way for the bot to look at bets quicker because by the time a bet is processed 2-3 more have come in so the bot is constantly behind. This is because each bet requires an additional API call to see the positions of the market which takes about a second. I've also held back on adding new features because of this -- I need to find a way to make what I already have faster first. I'll need to figure out a way to cut down on that processing time. I think this may involve storing market information in a file so I don't have to make API requests for each bet.

I have been thinking about many of the features I want to add and I think that I know how I'll going to implement them. I'll do it when I get back from vacation in late December. One is an easy to use automated betting platform where you can program simple statements to perform arbitrage or buy/sell at crucial times.

holds 33.5%

Manifold Markets

10 months ago

January 15th Evaluation Results

Valuations: 200, 100, 0, 50, 0, 300

Weighted Median Valuation: 50

Isaac King: Useful. Implementation is awkward, but that's a given for anything that's not native. Likely has saved several people some time and effort. $200.

wasabipesto: I think this sort of thing is very important, and should eventually be a first-party feature. If I'm going to bet significant amounts on a market I want to be informed of any rapid changes! Unfortunately it looks like the bot is currently broken, and could use a more ergonomic interface (like a web app or something).

Rachel: Seems like cc6 doesn't really believe in this anymore. Last time I said I hoped they put effort into making it easy to use, and they basically decided that it wasn't and that would be hard to change so this wasn't worth pursuing, which makes sense to me!

SG: No comment

James: Seems like it's not well supported and not endorsed for usage by the creator. Such a tool has to be pretty good to be worth anything.

Austin: Unchanged valuation since last time; I think it’s very reasonable if cc6 decides that the college admissions site is much more worthwhile than the this one, and encourage her to focus efforts on whatever she finds most promising.

holds 16.5%

cc6

10 months ago

I am not so sure that this was such a good idea anymore, since it's annoying to use and has a hard time keeping up with trades as they come in.

holds 33.5%

Manifold Markets

11 months ago

December 15th Evaluation Results

Valuations: 10, 100, 0, 500, 300

Median Valuation: 100

James: Not launched yet. $10 for the feedback on the difficulties in the API

SG: Fun project. I could see power users liking this, but it still needs more work. I see most of the impact coming from figuring out precisely which notifications users want and (ultimately) getting that incorporated into the core platform.

Rachel: Seems like cc6 took the bot offline because of some issues, which makes sense but also means that at the moment impact is void. I like the idea—on the one hand, you don’t want Manifold notifications every time someone bets, but it’s also sad to miss out on big news as it’s happening, and this seems like it’s trying to strike a balance and give useful market movement notifs. Also makes me think maybe this should just be a setting on Manifold though. My hope is that they put effort into making it really easy to access and use.

Inga Wei: cool idea!

Austin: Like mirrorbot, this market is a cool example of using Managrams for fun and profit. I especially appreciate that this project is completely shipped, though unfortunately it’s broken at the moment so I would reduce the valuation somewhat.

As with most projects, this would be a lot more valuable with wider adoption. Try sharing the bot with people on the Manifold discord, and talk about what their experience using it has been and what pain points with following markets they have!

holds 43.6%

Marcus Abramovitch

12 months ago

This is a great idea at a great valuation. Bought remaining equity.

I am very excited to fund "high school juniors". There is no reason they can't do cool valuable projects already.