I think this is interesting and would want to hear how it's going.
11
The Base Rate Times
$2.73Kraised of $326797 goal
$500required to proceed
-1317hours left to contribute
š Regrantors, ask me anything! Book a quick chat here: https://calendly.com/baseratetimes/meeting
Project summary
The Base Rate Times is a nascent media company that incorporates prediction markets prominently into its coverage.
You can find the current iteration here: https://www.baseratetimes.com/
And here: https://twitter.com/base_rate_times
Replace pundits with prediction markets:
The Washington Post = "As campaigning ends, outcome of Franceās presidential vote is uncertain".
The Base Rate Times = "As campaigning ends, prediction markets give Macron an 80% chance of winning".
Gap in the ecosystem: There are numerous prediction platforms now, but their forecasts have not been extensively used by the media and content creators. The Base Rate Times seeks to bridge this gap by sharing insights from prediction markets in an engaging way.
Novel approach: To date, attempts at using forecasts to influence decision makers have focused on consultancy (e.g. Good Judgement) or internal markets within organizations. The Base Rate Times tries something new, tackling the news cycle and 'Overton window' that influences leaders.
Roadmap
The Base Rate Times is currently a news aggregator website with a Twitter feed. The funds will be used to deliver an ambitious roadmap, including:
Short-form video and image-based news across all social media (best explained with an example: https://www.instagram.com/thedailyaus/)
AI-enhanced article summaries (can AI contextualize stories with historical data, make counter-arguments, etc.?)
Adversarial collaborations between top forecasters to create models of major events
Project goals
The Base Rate Times is a moonshot bet on embedding prediction markets into mainstream media, mirroring the success of FiveThirtyEight in popularizing prediction polls.
Popular epistemics: The media informs people's models of the world. Popularizing forecasts will help improve belief formation/revision and raise the quality of public debate.
Early warning system: What if there was a major newspaper consistently reporting a 1 in 3 risk of a global pandemic before COVID-19?
Influencing decision makers: Dominic Cummings, former chief advisor to the UK PM, tweeted āGovt is run by [the] PM listening to random news stories at 9am & blurting ideasā. What if instead of just ārandom news storiesā, the PM also reacted to prediction markets?
While The Base Rate Timesā goals have a longshot probability of success, the likelihood of making a meaningful contribution at the margin is much higher.
How will this funding be used?
$90k: my pre-tax salary (below market rate)
$120.3k: freelancers + tools of trade + 'true cost of employment'
$32.7k: product development + content creation
$5.5k: business administration
$78.2k: buffers (e.g. for planning fallacy)
How could this project be actively harmful?
As prediction markets grow more prominent, the incentive for interference increases. A political candidate, for instance, might try to manipulate market odds to improve public perceptions about their chance of success.
What other funding is this person or project getting?
None to date.
offered $100
offered $25
š½
Marcel van Diemen
2 days ago
@IsaakFreeman I'm chipping away at it in my spare time. Currently at 4.5k followers on Twitter
NuƱo Sempere
about 15 hours ago
@vandemonian Are you currently constrained by more funding? Do you have the capacity to put in more effort if you get more funding?
Rachel Weinberg
3 months ago
@vandemonian btw you have to sign the grant agreement before you'll get the grant
offered $100
offered $25
offered $2,500
Joel Becker
4 months ago
I've made Marcel an offer of $2.5k. This is not necessarily the last offer I make to this project; I'm giving a smaller amount in order to get money out the door more quickly and to provide a credible signal to other regrantors.
This grant seems fairly straightforward to evaluate. On the one hand,
The early project looks great. I am and others are deriving value from it already.
The way in which this project would contribute to "raising the sanity waterline" is clear (at least, on its own terms; see my distrust of this kind of thing in general below).
Trusted members of my network are excited about the project.
Marcel's answer to my question about scaled-down budget seems sensible. It feels like this project can absorb only partial funding fairly well.
On the other hand,
I'm somewhat distrustful of forecasting/IIDM projects by default, because the connection between the 95th percentile version of these projects and improved outcomes has often been unclear to me. (I like Linch's post as a counterweight.) I feel this for Marcel's project too.
I am more excited about some other projects, do definitely don't want to go all-in on this.
Overall, I'm happy to give partial funding to this project, on the substance and as a signal to others.
š“
Ezra Brodey
4 months ago
Even though I have a competing forecasting grant proposal, I want to state what a cool project this is and how much I've enjoyed what you've shipped so far.
I think we still have a ways to go in using prediction markets to understand contemporary events, and the project also has value in highlighting how different prediction market/forecasting platforms compare.
offered $25
š½
Marcel van Diemen
4 months ago
Thank you!
I see our proposals as complimentary goods, would love more real money prediction markets to include in my coverage
offered $2,500
Joel Becker
4 months ago
Hello Marcel! I've been enjoying The Base Rate Times' early coverage -- good work!
Could I ask if you have a sense of what a scaled down budget would look like? Given the large discrepancy between what you require to proceed and your goal. What would the breakdown look like at $10k, $35k, $100k?
Thank you in advance!
offered $25
š½
Marcel van Diemen
4 months ago
Thank you!
What a scaled down budget might look like:
$10k:
~$5k on paying others to help me with technical bottlenecks (e.g. 2 hour consultations with relevant experts)
~$2.6k on content creation (e.g. software subscriptions, higher quality microphone, storage, etc.)
~$1.2k on paying superforecasters for content (tbh don't have a good feel for costs here yet, but want some $ budgeted for it)
~$600 for basic 'tools of trade' + expenses (e.g. Webflow, Twitter Blue, ChatGPT, etc.)
~$600 on business admin (e.g. registering the company properly)
$35k:
~$15k on hiring on a project basis to deliver product goals + associated product development costs (e.g. may need a server for some features)
~$6.4k on content creation (as above + upgraded laptop, potentially access to sound/image libraries)
~$5k on technical help consultations (as above)
~$3.6k on pre-tax salary for me
~$2.4k on basic tools/expenses, business admin, etc. (as above + looking into help for accounting, insurance, legal compliance, etc.)
~$2.4k on paying superforecasters for content
$100k:
~$50k on hiring on a project/task basis (as above + help on content side of things, e.g. editors)
~$32.6k on pre-tax salary for me
~$6.4k on content creation
~$5k on technical help consultations
~$3.6k on paying superforecasters for content
~$2.4k on basic tools/expenses, business admin, etc.
offered $25
š½
Marcel van Diemen
4 months ago
Full disclosure: I was given $25 by Manifund after a user experience interview. I've shamelessly decided to add it to my own project. If you think this is dodgy, please comment and I'll remove it.
offered $100
Nathan Young
4 months ago
I want this idea to be tested at greater scale. I think if we can build the processes here then other news orgs can use them. This seems like foundational work.
offered $25