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News through prediction markets
Moonshot bet on mainstreaming prediction markets
The Base Rate Times is an early-stage news company that prominently incorporates prediction markets into its coverage.
Our ambition is to become a mainstream media source, mirroring the success of FiveThirtyEight in popularising prediction polls.
Think “like 538, but for prediction markets”!
10x solution to fake news & vague verbiage
For example, one headline reads: “German spy chief sees no 'cracks' in Putin system”. Another contradicts: “Putin 'dead man walking,' former CIA chief says”.
By contrast, multiple prediction markets all show Putin >90% likely to stay in power (as neatly summarized on BRT).
Glancing at a single chart of forecasts is more informative than reading ten articles.
Mainstream headlines optimise for storytelling, not accuracy
For example: “Taiwan braces for China's fury over Pelosi visit”. Great clickbait, but ambiguous about the risk’s magnitude.
By contrast, BRT’s headline: “China-Taiwan conflict risk 14%, up 2x after Pelosi visit”.
This is an actionable insight - it can inform your expected value calculations on whether to flee Taiwan, for example.
Fills gap in the ecosystem
There are numerous well-funded prediction platforms now, but their forecasts have not been extensively used by the media and content creators.
BRT seeks to bridge this gap by sharing insights from prediction markets in an engaging way.
The money will be used to create compelling content across X/Twitter, YouTube, TikTok and other major social media platforms.
Describe why you think you're qualified to work on this
I built the MVP and grew it to ~5k followers within months.
List of celebrity endorsements: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VpXWU0UVVmq6_2MhBwq7K9AGT6A4GncQ25Jm-bACT_E/edit?usp=sharing
I have a track record of success in a different domain (corporate career) and experience managing projects, owning a P&L, etc.
Other ways I can learn about you
Ask me anything (or just say hello): https://calendly.com/baseratetimes/meeting
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