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Manifold corporate blog on Habr

Manifold iconManifold Community FundForecasting
🌳

Ender Ting

CompleteImpact certificate
$0raised
$7,260valuation
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Project summary

Create corporate blog on https://habr.com/.

Habr is a platform featuring large number of software developers. They may be interested in technically advanced platforms such as Manifold and Manifold Dating; there is a commonly known effect when services mentioned there unexpectedly get high load.

On articles in Russian, average in the feed to the right ("most reading") is 10K visits and two-hour-old articles usually hit 500-2K visits.

Promotion of a brand is allowed provided that it's still a technically-related article and takes place in a corporate blog. Corporate blogs are quite expensive, $3'630/month.

I think Manifold has quite a lot of things to tell about, including company radical transparency approach, custom AMM with limit orders, etc!

(Description copied from https://manifold.markets/AnT/will-manifold-create-a-corporate-bl?r=QW5U)

What are this project's goals and how will you achieve them?

The goal is
- to attract new ecosystem with almost-zero prior intersection to Manifold, with users of reasonable (up to Trustworthy-ish) "quality"
- by writing engaging articles about how Manifold works and what it can be used for.

How will this funding be used?

Payment for corporate blog creation.

Who is on your team and what's your track record on similar projects?

I and [to be updated: looking for one of Manifold core team members]. I have no past projects like this.

What are the most likely causes and outcomes if this project fails? (premortem)

Outcome: Manifold doesn't get much more users.
Reasons: other language (not especially likely), conceptual mismatch.

Outcome: users aren't engaged for long.
Reason: Manifold Markets aren't helpful enough for users.

Outcome: Manifold gets bad PR.
Reasons: poorly written articles, forgetting to check comments, (improbable) significant conceptual mismatch (if Manifold is mistaken for something like sports betting and betting is claimed to be bad).

What other funding are you or your project getting?

No other funding.

Comments4OffersShareholders
FoldyOfficial avatar

Manifold Markets

over 1 year ago

December 15th Evaluation Results

Valuations: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

Median Valuation: 0

SG: Is this promotional content for Habr? Doesn't seem impactful.

Rachel: I like that this is aimed at getting new users (and turning them into power users), which is probably what Manifold values the most. However, it’s unfortunate that it’s in Russian (since Manifold is generally in English) and that it will require upkeep from the Manifold team. I also think the valuation is too high.

Inga Wei: cost of corporate blog doesn't seem to be worth the benefit

Sinclair: This one's a bit hard to evaluate, and probably Steven's evaluation would be better. We currently don't have many Russian users, and we don't really understand the russian tech market. I see Intl being valuable eventually, but even then we'd be competing against real money prediction markets. And right now a top-down promotion to Russian users is probably just going to draw skepticism and not accomplish much, with some chance of being very counterproductive.

Austin: I do also think that Manifold’s corporate structure has interesting tidbits in it! I would be amenable to awarding prize funding to this project if one or two articles had already been written.

General note is that we’re also happy to pay for and publish guest articles on our own newsletter; I’ve made this offer to several Manifold users. Note that we expect to have a reasonably high quality bar for what we would publish, though.

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Ender Ting

over 1 year ago

@FoldyOfficial Thanks for the feedback!

SG: Is this promotional content for Habr? Doesn't seem impactful.

I haven't interacted with Habr nor promoters/affiliates/whomever like that, only decided that it looks large enough.

Rachel: <...> it’s unfortunate that it’s in Russian <...>

Unfortunately, I can't recommend social networks in other languages)
In Hacktoberfest 2023, I received a badge from platform "dev.to". I don't know whether it's any good but it can also be considered!

Inga Wei: cost of corporate blog doesn't seem to be worth the benefit

Yes, I'm inclined to agree...

Sinclair: <...> a top-down promotion to Russian users is probably just going to draw skepticism <...>

I haven't seen very much skepticism on idea of "manifold.politics", for example. I have no guess whether existing Manifold users will even know about this blog!

By "being counterproductive", do you mean possibility of cross-cultural conflict or a bunch of users deciding Manifold spends money in a wrong way, or something other?

Austin: <...> if one or two articles had already been written <...>

One draft, named "Applications with two databases", had actually been written! Both in English and Russian versions.


I see that there are other nice projects and may only hope that something like this one will sometime be launched!

🌳

Ender Ting

over 1 year ago

Are you planning to blog in Russian?

Yes! I think I'll also translate articles into English so they can be crossposted to other blogs as well.

The plan:

  1. Austin(?) receives this grant and pays for corporate blog;

  2. I write an article each week, Austin(?) suggests possible topics for a next one;

  3. When 3 months pass and corporate blog permission expires, this initiative can be evaluated to check if Manifold wants to continue blogging.

Article already done: "Applications with two databases" (RU, EN)

AntonMakiievskyi avatar

Anton Makiievskyi

over 1 year ago

Are you planning to blog in Russian? I love the idea, just want to see a more concrete plan for execution to assess whether it's worth funding