Longer description of your proposed project

CSF-methods, including Forecasting Tournaments and Prediction Markets, use the collective intelligence of diverse groups to predict future events. These approaches are great at aggregating varied perspectives, mitigating individual biases, and revealing a more nuanced and accurate understanding of the future. Such tools seem ideal for governments navigating the complexities of the 21st century...

Since the forecasting revolution sparked by Tetlock's work, there has been the emergence of excellent forecasting platforms and tools like Manifold, Metaculus, Confido, and Cultivate Labs, fostering a robust forecasting community. Despite this, the integration of these methods into government decision-making has been incredibly slow. This project aims to merge the outside-game, bottom-up strategy employed by the forecasting community with an inside-game, top-down approach. This new focus targets specific problems that Forecasting and CSF methods can address for policymakers and decision-makers. Through this strategy, the project seeks to accelerate the adoption of these methods among EU decision-makers.

Project Objectives

• By mid-2024: Develop and publish material to assist policymakers in incorporating forecasting into decision-making.

• By mid-2024: Conduct at least 5 workshops for targeted EU policymakers (and potentially journalists) on the utilization of forecasting tools.

• By end-2024: Provide 5 EU organizations / units with tailored advice on how to implement CSF-methods and tool in their decision-making.

• By end-2025: Persuade an EU DG or advisory institution to adopt CSF methods for foresight or strategy.

• By end-2025: If viable, launch a non-profit to advocate for the broad adoption of CSF methods.

• Beyond 2025: Achieve widespread adoption of CSF methods in EU governments.

Project Plan

Stage 1: Development and Dissemination of Online Material:

This stage focuses on creating an accessible, practical online manual on forecasting methods, specifically targeted to policymakers without CSF-experience. This manual will encompass various forecasting methods, but will largely focus on how policymakers can use them to address their problems. The goal is to make this manual as accessible and practical as possible, ensuring it serves as a valuable tool in the decision-making process. Drawing from a workshop I regularly conduct, the manual will simplify the practical process of using forecasting, how to deal with quantified uncertainty in the policy domain and explaining SMART-Forecasting (using CSF-techniques to Forecast on whether SMART goals will be met). It aims to make forecasting tools easily understandable and usable for policymakers without needing extensive prior knowledge.

The dissemination strategy involves leveraging my network within the Dutch government and politics, Effective Altruism, and the JRC (The EU's internal think-tank). I plan to use JRC-organized meetings for feedback and spreading this material, as well as helping identify targets for stage 2 and 3.

Stage 2: Interactive Workshops: The second stage involves conducting interactive, hands-on workshops for EU policymakers. These workshops are designed to not only impart knowledge of these methods, but also to practice forecasting skills and apply them to a strategic question facing the unit straight away. Deliverables include conducting these workshops, creating resources for participants, and compiling feedback for future improvements.

Stage 3: Personalized Forecasting Strategy Sessions:

In the final stage, I hope to build on the previously given workshops by offering entities that participate free support implementing CSF-methods to guide their strategic decisions, by taking an organisation's plan, key uncertainties, and targets, and translating them into good forecasting questions and markets. Follow-ups will ensure the successful application of forecasting strategies, and are also a valuable source of feedback. My aim is to explore a sustainable model through consultancy and expertise sharing as well, potentially transitioning the project into a self-sustaining entity.

Selecting Target Organisations: Many attempts at implementing CSF fail due to internal politics. I am convinced this problem can be largely solved through working with an organisation that is relatively independent and already has the mandate to work on keeping other organisations accountable. The focus must be on organisations with significant policy influence and visibility within the EU policy ecosystem to facilitate wider adoption of these methods down the line, as well as entities with mandates for horizontal accountability, clear outcome metrics, experience with Foresight, and strategic influence in EU policymaking. Lastly, for me to have a pre-existing network within the organisation will likely significantly increase the chance of success. I have already identified several good candidates based on these criteria.

Describe why you think you're qualified to work on this

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Other ways I can learn about you

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How much money do you need?

$3,300 USD - For publishing an online manual focused on Forecasting for policymakers. This will be disseminated through word of mouth, Dutch government, EA, and JRC networks, followed by a series of online meetings to further promote these ideas.

$7,000 USD - As described above, but also includes conducting several workshops on CSF methods for EU and member-state policymakers and journalists.

$25,000 USD - As outlined previously, but with the addition of offering free Forecasting Strategy sessions and guidance over several months of the project's duration, with the potential to become self-sustaining through CSF consulting projects.

Links to any supporting documents or information

No response.

Estimate your probability of succeeding if you get the amount of money you asked for

95% - By mid-2024: Develop and publish material to assist policymakers in incorporating forecasting into decision-making.

80% - By mid-2024: Conduct at least 5 workshops for targeted EU policymakers (and potentially journalists) on the utilization of forecasting tools.

70% - By end-2024: Provide 5 EU organizations / units with tailored advice on how to implement CSF-methods and tool in their decision-making.

5% - By mid-2025: Persuade an EU DG or advisory institution to adopt CSF methods for foresight or strategy.

20% - By mid-2025: If viable, launch a non-profit to advocate for the broad adoption of CSF methods.

5% - Beyond 2025: Be counterfactually responsible for bringing forward widespread adoption of CSF methods in EU governments by at least 3 years.