Transformative AI scenarios for EU policymakers

Description of proposed project

AI trajectories are uncertain, yet one thing is clear: AI’s impact will be transformative. We support European policymakers in navigating this uncertainty through comprehensive scenario planning and help them understand the role the EU can play in shaping AI governance. Unlike single-narrative approaches, our Advanced AI Possible Futures project maps 5 plausible scenarios, from slower progress to intelligence explosion, equipping decision-makers to prepare for diverse outcomes rather than betting on just one future. Building on this foundation, we're developing a quantitative model and a dashboard that matches these scenarios with potential real-world indicators like world GDP and unemployment. This approach resonates with policymakers and enables interactive engagement both through the content itself and our targeted workshops.

Europe offers a timely opening for AI governance influence, which drives our EU-focused outreach, but our analytical frameworks are built to address universal policy challenges.

Why are you qualified to work on this?

We have unique access to EU decision-makers, regularly contributing to core policy documents and participating in high-level roundtables. Our scenarios have already influenced thinking among OECD officials, European Commission staff, and member state governments. We developed them with input from experts at Forethought, Open Philanthropy, AI Futures Project, EpochAI, and RAND Corporation, among others. The quantitative dashboard we're now developing will amplify the existing impact of our scenario work, extending our reach and making our insights more accessible to policymakers. Our team combines deep technical AI expertise with extensive European policy experience, including researchers with backgrounds in deep learning, policy advisors who've shaped EU AI strategy, and foresight specialists with proven experience across European institutions.

What would you do if not funded?

The project would proceed much slower through existing channels, limited to occasional briefings. We would need to choose between the quantitative dashboard, which provides credibility, and systematic engagement, which ensures reach. This undermines effectiveness since they work best together. We're exploring other funding sources, but these typically have longer timelines and restrictive requirements.

Most critically, we risk missing the current window where European AI policy is rapidly evolving with exceptional openness to new frameworks. Without this funding, we may lose years of opportunity to influence global AI development through informed European leadership during the start of the 2025-2029 mandate period, when the agenda is set for years to come.

How much money do you need?

We received an ACX grant for the basic quantitative modeling tools and scenario tracking dashboard development.

With your help, we're aiming to turbocharge the impact of this effort by:

Updating the model and the dashboard at the bare minimum, and potentially expanding the metrics into AI investment flows, compute cluster expansion, and research automation rates
Promoting the dashboard launch online
Support our outreach effort for interactive sessions and workshops with EU policymakers through hosting events on our own in Brussels or in targeted conferences, offering more private briefings or traveling to EU institutions out of Brussels
Scenario adaptations for specific policy domains (defense, democracy, economic policy) Enhanced organizational capacity and expert network coordination

Supporting documents

Check out our scenarios! Advanced AI Possible Futures (main publication with technical evidence, policy analysis, and quantitative predictions) :
https://cfg.eu/advanced-ai-possible-futures/