What are the main features PlayMoney has that Manifold lacks?

Public advocacy seems likely to be the best thing on the margin to prevent extinction.

• Technical alignment research is (a) less neglected and (b) unlikely to solve alignment in time.

• Well-done advocacy directed at policymakers is possibly better, but it's unclear what efforts are most useful, and it's less neglected.

• PauseAI is the only game in town for public advocacy. At this point I think it's too early to say if they're doing a good job, but I think it's a good EV bet.

@Holly_Elmore When do you expect the new project to be up? I want to donate, ideally before Manifund's EA Community Choice ends on Sept 3. (I also intend to donate some non-Community Choice money but that can wait.)

This was a high quality writeup. Previously I was unsure about the impact of Lightcone but this writeup persuaded me that Lightcone is probably upstream of a significant amount of useful AI safety work.

I'm not convinced that Lightcone is the best marginal use of my donations. I may donate more in the future if I become convinced. For now, I'm donating $100 as a vote of confidence.