Thanks @FranklinBaldo for your contribution!

Thanks @such for your contribution!

Thanks @marktwse for your contribution!

Thanks @NunoSempere for pushing us over the $1000 mark!!! Awesome.

@Dglid Thanks much for your contribution!

@wasabipesto chiming in to try to address some of your questions from a different perspective.

Do you have any changes to market structure or feature set planned to differentiate you from competitors? Are you implementing the same AMM used by Manifold?

A hand-wavy outline of how probability gets calculated and markets paid out is here.

https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/blob/main/README/MATH/README-MATH-PROB-AND-PAYOUT.md

The actual transform itself in the code is here:

https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/blob/main/backend/handlers/math/outcomes/dbpm/dbpm_marketshares.go

and market probability calculation here:

https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/blob/main/backend/handlers/math/probabilities/wpam/wpam_marketprobabilities.go

The way shares get allocated is basically a, "geometric," allocation transform that I came up with myself by just visualizing it on paper and then wrangling the code until it made sense.

What is an Automated Market Maker (AMM) and why is it needed in your mind?

My thought would be, we could give folks who administrate their own servers the ability to create market makers or automated market maker accounts and have a specific user model that supports these types of activities. Since SocialPredict is open source and since the vision is, "for all," we would like to make this as abstract and non-opinionated as possible. It seems to me that the existence of an AMM, however that is defined, would be an opinion, not a requirement, and that we could either build a plugin for it or just a user model that could support either Market Makers, Sponsors in the traditional sense or "Automated," market makers. E.g., perhaps it could be accomplished by just having a bot account with a lot of funds added to it and some specific instructions on how to behave. Perhaps this bot account could be running on a container that we set up specifically for automation tasks, and allow admins to build their own (probably python-based), bots for whatever they would like.

What's nice about automation is that it does something repetitively, but at the same time, to someone running their own server this may become a bug rather than a feature.

Local deployment:

Follow the instructions below. As Osnat stated, she has it running on a machine with 8GB of RAM. I'm currently running this locally and doing my development on a Macbook Air 2014 with 4GB of RAM using Ubuntu 22. It's designed to be lightweight and performant.

https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/blob/main/README/LOCAL_SETUP.md#setting-up-the-project-on-your-local-machine

Awesome!

@astrosnat OK, will do!

@PatrickDelaney Happy to chat more if interested!

Greetings! I am creating an open source prediction market platform already which is fully functional so possibly could help shave around $20k off of your costs. https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict