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Domenic Denicola

@Domenic

accredited investor

https://twitter.com/domenic
$0.01total balance
$0charity balance
$0.01cash balance

$0 in pending offers

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Domenic Denicola

12 months ago

This vaguely seems cool in that I've always wondered, when making day-to-day predictions, whether the amount of money matters. That is, sure, I'll mentally predict a 70% chance that the cafeteria has chicken today, but how much would I bet at 70:30 odds? I get the sense that your proposal here would help me tease that out.

However, in practice, my eyes glaze over when reading the described scenarios. (Sorry! I know you tried really hard.) Putting a single probability number on things is already a hard enough skill to develop. Figuring out a potentially-escalating series of bets, based on wild-ass-guessed utility dollar values? Or, apparently as an alternative formulation, saying I'd "35% do something"? I haven't internalized this concept, and I doubt many other people in the community have either. I think it'd be difficult to get adoption for anything built here, without first percolating the idea through the blogosphere for a few years.

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Domenic Denicola

12 months ago

Is $7k really enough to replicate an entire year-journal's worth of economics papers? (Or I guess less than $7k, since you are planning to spend some of it as rewards?)

When you say "create a prediction market", are you intending to create a new platform or use an existing one? If an existing one, which one?

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Domenic Denicola

12 months ago

What are your marketing plans?

What kind of visitor numbers would you find acceptable and would make you continue to invest in the project?

What are your plans if you receive less than $20,000 in funding?

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Domenic Denicola

12 months ago

Hmm. I feel like there's a good idea in here (publicly grading pundits with an accuracy/reputation score over time) that's going to get buried under a too-ambitious product (your own new prediction market platform, proprietary machine-learning inference of predictions, users who are risking capital, political bias detection).

I'd be more interested in funding an MVP which just did historical/running annotations of predictions from a small selection of pundits, and tried to scale up from there after it got some traction.

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Domenic Denicola

12 months ago

I've spoken to a few superforecasters already and they said they would be happy to participate if I could compensate them appropriately

Did they specifically confirm that $50/hour is appropriate compensation?

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Domenic Denicola

12 months ago

Hi folks, can you give more information on "What is your track record on similar projects?" Have you hosted a podcast before? Done interviews or journalism before? Done any regular-output project (e.g. blogging, column-writing, YouTube videos, ...) on a regular basis before?