Description of subprojects and results, including major changes from the original proposal

The event went well! Ended up only being around ~25 people despite ~50 going + ~50 maybe rsvps on partiful, so not as much funding was necessary, but it was still great to have, and I think this allowed the event to feel more cohesive and manageable.

Spending breakdown

approx budget breakdown: $120 bagels, $100 snacks, $50 drinks, $150 dinner, plus some supplies donated by my household

@Austin haha thanks! it will be very easy to plug things I already love :)

I wrote a politics article for the Manifold newsletter! It received 17 of those heart things on Substack, and multiple people posted comments saying they appreciated it. https://news.manifold.markets/p/how-inevitable-is-bidens-nomination

I think Manifold is doing good work with Manifold Politics, and does have a path to gaining the FiveThirtyEight demographic. We, too, have a lot of data-driven political analysis of a lot of different subquestions. I think supplementing this with politics coverage is somewhat high-value in terms of broadening Manifold's platform; I would be interested in writing more articles as things in the news happen - or maybe during the summer in some kind of intern position. Could be a growth vector for Manifold if one of these gets popular or something. In terms of value to the world...it definitely makes politics nerds happier, idk if it does more than that, if I'm being honest. I think I would try to keep it to predictions and not venture into the realm of potentially-cancellable takes.

@cc6 yeah maybe! I’ll send you the spec when I write it

@Conflux oh wait I was the main guest on Episode 2 of Manifold Live, do I get any points for that

What progress have you made since your last update?

None…
I know it’s January, when I said I’d start doing things. I’ve gotten less busy, but

• I’ve been allocating some of my slack toward relaxation + better sleep schedule + better quality of schoolwork

• I never had a clear idea of what I was doing for this project

• I’ve been using some of my project time for things where I do have clear ideas (a puzzle event I’m running; a college app-related technology (currently nicknamed The College App App) that I’m in the early stages of concepting; a better version of that nice numbers video…hopefully; a paid Metaculus position I might end of taking; etc)

What are your next steps?

Even though there’s only one month left in the community fund, I’m trying not to specifically optimize for the community fund. I think in the long run I will do additional things that add value to Manifold.

Another next step is that I’ve been meaning to chat with (someone from) the Manifold team about contributions for me. Austin told me that the next Taco Tuesday he’d be at would be in February, so I might go to that. Obviously it’s also possible to schedule a zoom call etc, but I’d rather it be more informal.

Oh also, the College App App could have some Manifold integrations/connections. I don’t think it’s the focus of the product idea, but it could plausibly still exist under the Manifold umbrella. I’m hoping to publish a spec of the College App App that I could link somewhere like here, but we’ll see what I get done.

Is there anything others could help you with?

I guess the main thing would be a clear idea of something I could do for Manifold that would be higher-impact than the other projects I’m doing. But also, I think there’s a decent chance I pursue the other projects and this ends up with a valuation of zero. Sorry investors….

What does it mean to "correctly predict the winner"? Are you just bucketing markets into those above 50% and those below 50%, ignoring all the finer-grained distinctions?

Oh, thanks for the clarification! I'll revise accordingly.