It’s easy to get stuck in “super serious forecaster mode” but so much can be done to make forecasting feel less like a chore and more like a fun, dynamic technology with a lively community.
My proposal is to devise and execute a series of fun, visible or viral engagement projects that can be layered on top of Metaculus, Manifold and other forecasting platforms. As a community, we’ll use Manifold’s platform to source and vote on project ideas, and then we’ll execute the chosen ideas. It’s difficult to expand this pitch much further without knowing which projects will ultimately be selected, but here are examples of projects that might be considered “fun”:
- Fund and share a series of ‘Cameos’ (https://www.cameo.com) of celebrities making predictions on questions to be determined.
- Host a "Reaffirm Day” to encourage people to revisit older predictions.
- Fund non-monetary prizes for tournament participants or winners. Could be as simple as t-shirts or hats or a trophy, whatever encourages bragging rights or virality.
- Commission an artist to make a forecasting-themed mural in the Bay area.
- Curate a forecasting-powered treasure hunt experience.
- Challenge a well-known public intellectual or celebrity to co-write a fortified essay on Metaculus.
- EDIT: Go to conferences with SMEs, get them to do real-time predictions.
- You get the idea.
What is your track record on similar projects?
I’ve written five fortified essays for Metaculus and use various forecasting platforms. I’ve also run a myriad of contests over the past decade, including an annual predictions contest for family/friends and most recently a World Cup contest. This kind of thing isn’t an aberration for me: in 2008, I self-funded a trivia tournament on Facebook. People have told me that these events were “fun” thanks to my curation/guidance. Beyond that, I have a decade of fancy project management experience that probably counts for something. Community engagement has always been part of my professional work.
Please note that I plan to serve primarily as a facilitator were this to be funded. This as an opportunity to collaborate with the forecasting community and to enable others to get creative.
How will you spend your funding?
I’m asking for $4,000 because that should be enough money to fund at least a few moderately ambitious projects. 100% of funding will go towards project-specific expenses (paying for collaborators’ time, prizes, etc.) Thanks for your consideration!