Project summary

Epoch AI is a leading research institute that develops public knowledge on AI's trajectory through rigorous research, novel benchmarking, and comprehensive data tracking. We seek general support to expand our work informing policymakers, industry leaders, and society on AI development and its implications. Our unique position combining technical depth with accessible communication has made us a trusted source for stakeholders ranging from government officials to tech leaders.

What are this project's goals? How will you achieve them?

Broadly, our mission is to conduct and disseminate rigorous research on the trajectory and impact of artificial intelligence, to enable better policy and decision-making. With additional funding, we aim to expand three key initiatives:

1. Data Curation: Building on our successful AI model and hardware tracking to cover AI clusters and companies, launching weekly data insights for timely analysis.

2. Capability Measurement: Growing our AI Benchmarking Hub through independent model evaluations and novel benchmarks like FrontierMath.

3. Economic Modeling: Developing a framework combining AI scaling laws with growth theory to analyze automation impacts and compute scaling.

We'll achieve these through strategic hiring of technical talent, maintaining our commitment to rigorous analysis, and expanding our successful track record of creating accessible, high-impact content.

How will this funding be used?

We're seeking $10M over two years to scale our impact:

• $2M/year for the data program (tracking AI systems, hardware, clusters)

• $2M/year for AI benchmarking (capability measurement, new benchmark development)

• $6M for team expansion including an AI Data Lead, research engineers, and operations staff

• Reaching 30 full-time employees while maintaining project-specific contractor relationships

Who is on your team? What's your track record on similar projects?

Our 23-person team (https://epoch.ai/about) has demonstrated strong execution in 2024:

• Published groundbreaking benchmarks (FrontierMath) with 70+ mathematicians

• Released major reports cited by tech leaders and government officials

• Published in top venues (ICLM, NeurIPS 2024)

• Grew audience from 2K to 15K Twitter followers

• Attracted 360K website users

• Successfully scaled from 10 to 23 full-time employees this year

What are the most likely causes and outcomes if this project fails?

1. Talent Competition: The competitive market for AI researchers could dampen our capacity to attract and retain talent

2. Data Access: Limited visibility into private AI development could affect our tracking capabilities

How much money have you raised in the last 12 months, and from where?

Roughly 75% of our funding comes from Open Philanthropy. The rest comes from individual donors, organizations such as Survival and Flourishing Fund, or from service agreements with collaborators on projects aligned with our mission.