I've used Fatebook! It's been decent. At least once did the browser extension mess up formatting on a website I was on, but otherwise things have been pretty good. I generally think forecasting training tools and better prediction-accounting tools are pretty valuable.
4
Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions
Project summary
Sage is building tools to make sense of the future. So far, we’ve built:
Fatebook (stats): The fastest way to track your predictions, designed for individuals and orgs aiming to have a large positive impact. You can use it on the web (fatebook.io) and through Slack, Discord and browser integrations. Users have recorded ~50k forecasts on ~25k questions
Quantified Intuitions (stats): Forecasting training tools with rapid feedback loops
Pastcasting: predict past events to rapidly practice forecasting. ~90 visitors/month
Calibration: a calibration training game, with decks of questions on various EA-relevant topics. ~90 visitors/month
The Estimation Game: a monthly Fermi estimation game, designed for teams. Played by around 300 teams per month, designed to be an off-the-shelf event for groups to run (e.g. EA groups, workplaces)
Anki with Uncertainty: an Anki plugin to turn any flashcard deck into a calibration training tool. This was a smaller project
What are this project's goals? How will you achieve them?
See our theory of change, and current evidence for it.
How will this funding be used?
Expand and maintain our current suite of tools based on user feedback. For example, we would likely add support for quantity and date questions to Fatebook and improve its enterprise support
Experiments in new use-cases and products. For example, we’re interested in building tools using AI for epistemics, and investigating building bespoke tooling for impactful teams (e.g. EA grantmakers)
Who is on your team? What's your track record on similar projects?
See our team and track record.
What are the most likely causes and outcomes if this project fails?
We fail to grow our general userbase and usage doesn't grow amongst high-impact teams
We don't find evidence for uncertain parts of our theory of change, and fail to execute a pivot to more impactful projects.
What other funding are you or your project getting?
So far, we've received $1.1M in funding from Open Philanthropy, and have an application open with SFF. We're seeking more funding to diversify our funding base, extend our runway, and to fund more ambitious experiments.
donated $50
Adam Binksmith
4 months ago
@habryka Thanks! You can report websites where the browser extension doesn't play nicely here: https://github.com/Sage-Future/fatebook/issues